Browns +3
Broncos -9.5
Texans +7
Jets -1
Titans -3
Packers +1.5
Chargers -7.5
Cowboys -11
Eagles -3
Bills -8
49ers +4.5
Panthers -7
Week 3 Record 9-7
Season Record 26-21
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
JCU Moneyball
Tony DeCarlo Varsity Center, 8:15pm, February 9, 2009:
Casey Goetz: Coming to you live from the TDVC for the second half of a pivotal late in the year OAC matchup. John Carroll used a 10-0 run to close the half with a 44-34 lead over Baldwin Wallace. A run spearheaded by Rudy Kirbus' three straight baskets.
STO Chump: That's right Casey, Kirbus made absolutely 0 athletic moves but still forced the ball in the basket on 3 terrible looking drives.
Casey Goetz: That's his game man.
STO Guy: I'm glad its not my game Casey.
Timeout BW, Streaks led by 9 15: 43 Second Half
Cameras pan to the band, then cheerleaders:
Casey Goetz: As we have become accustom to, the JCU band is year in and year out the best band in the OAC
STO Chump: I have to agree with you Casey.
Camera pans to a focused slightly balding man sitting at a table with Coach Sean O'Toole in the Blue and Gold Room:
Casey Goetz: And there ladies gentlemen is John Curran. The GM of the John Carroll Blue Streaks. Curran, a former standout for the Streaks and OAC journeyman has been a catalyst in developing this roster, and bringing changes that were necessary for the proliferation of this team and their identity as a franchise.
STO Idiot: Many have credited Curran with changing the culture of this team, a dynamic move that his catapulted the Streaks into a tie with Capital with 3 OAC games to play.
Casey Goetz: His evaluation of player personnel has been off the charts. He knows the OAC better than anyone I know. But the way he has crafted the lineups we have seen this season has produced chemistry, high skill levels, and unlocked potential.
STO Idiot: I was talking to Chris Zajac before the game, and he credited Curran as being the guy who inspired him to have the huge season he is having.
Casey Goetz: JC is the Theo Epstein of the OAC. A young dynamo who has infused life into this old front office and staff. We are really seeing shades of Billy Beane's Moneyball at JCU this year, but in a basketball sense.
I played in an open gym today with the Streaks, and after winning 8 straight games I thought I might collapse and die. I hadnt played 5 on 5 on a regular sized court since March. I had focused mainly on the Lakewood Y league a 4 on 4 league played on small courts. As I was driving home, I thought about how the games went and who I liked, and who I thought was good, and who I thought was tough, and skilled, and quick and so on...And the main thing that I took out of this 40 minute car ride was: this is something that I have passion for, that I feel like I know pretty well, and that I feel like I can be pretty good at. So I created this role for myself: GM of the John Carroll Blue Streaks. Is it far-fetched? It probably is, but that doesnt mean its a bad idea and I couldn't do it. I genuinely feel like I could do it and add a ton of value to this organization. It's DEFINITELY something that needs to be addressed. Here's my case:
1. I know the guys on this team: I have a pretty good feel for the guys on this team, even after 2 hours of open gym. We'll see how it progresses into October and a couple scrimmages but I left with a pretty good idea of who I would play and who I would play with who. I played with a lot of these guys for two years in good times and bad. You give me any guy and off the top of my head I could give you 5 pluses and minuses about each guy. It's a talent and passion I have. And I know what these guys go through everyday. I know where guys heads go during practice or at school or where ever. I can really relate to guys because I have been through it.
2. I know every guy in the OAC: Kerry Wilkinson from Wilmington is a hot and cold player. He's a streak 3 point shooter whose left handed, who plays with a cerebral attitude. He doesnt force much, and is very subtle on the dribble. It doesnt look like he can go by you, but he changes pace and can really get into the key when hes playing well. Don't let him get an easy basket early. Gambles on defense, and is late a lot, but can get in your shit if your fucking around with the ball.
It really is sad, but I know stuff like this about every decent guy in the league. That was one example. The OAC has an ebb and flow with teams and their personnel. Watch ONU will have another Loudon Hammersmith this year riding pine. I spent so much time in this league that I just have a pretty good feel for teams and the guys they have.
3. Coach Moran needs a new voice: I love Coach Moran. I think he's a great guy, and he was very good to me. I do think he needs a new voice though. Not Pete. Not Matt. A voice that he hasnt really heard before. A constructive voice from a guy who knows how he thinks. And I do possess that. I know him pretty well, heck I spent A LOT of time with him. 114 games worth. I think I can speak to him in a way that can keep his main values in mind, but also give him quality insight that allows him to make better decisions.
4. This is the only team I know that can have a GM: The John Carroll hoop team is a special team. It is unique in a lot of perspectives. Its a team of local guys, who were great players, and can play at Carroll and be close to home and enjoy the game and have fun. Its campus is centrally located, so there is a lot of people from the westside and eastside who keep tabs with how the team is doing and who is playing. And were the only team in the league who has the kind of depth that we do. We have 15-18 really good guys who can play. You dont need a GM at Heidelberg or Musky. Our success has garnered loyal fans and our facility allows us to have great crowds when things are going good. I want to foster that environment and strengthen it. I want really good guys from Eds, Ignatius, X, Elder etc. to stay home and play for the Streaks. As GM, I would bring in guys that love basketball and can play.
5. The time is now: I think we got a lotta good guys. I think if things go right, this team can win an OAC championship. The league is definitely getting better. More and more kids are staying home and playing hoops. We played right with Cleveland State for a while, even though they were on cruise control playing at about 50% seriousness level but thats not the point. The point is that we have a lot of good guys on this team. And we have to have to right guys and lineups out there, or were gonna struggle. I can help with that and evaluate that throughout the year.
So, those are a couple of things I had going on in my messed up head today. I think it definitely warrants some consideration. You wouldnt have to pay me much. I was thinking about $50 grand a year with some incentive clauses that are front loaded. I say front loaded because I definitely want to apply for the Brooklyn Nets Gm job when King James moves over there in 2010. What would be bad about bringing me on as GM? Nothing. I can only help. You wanna do something good for this team? Bring in a journeymen. Bring in a guy who can evaluate personnel. Bring in a guy who isnt afraid to disagree with the norms. JC for Blue Streaks GM. LETS GET DIRTY!
Friday, September 19, 2008
Week 3 Picks
Falcons (-6)
Raiders (+9.5)
Titans (-4.5)
Bengals (+13.5)
Skins (as Rory Would Say) (-3)
Pats (-13)
Bears (-3)
Panthers (+3.5)
Seahawks (-10)
Lions (+4.5)
Broncos (-6)
Steelers (+3.5)
Browns (+2.5)
Packers (+3)
Chargers (-9)
Colts (-5)
Week 2 Record 10-5
Season Record 17-14
Raiders (+9.5)
Titans (-4.5)
Bengals (+13.5)
Skins (as Rory Would Say) (-3)
Pats (-13)
Bears (-3)
Panthers (+3.5)
Seahawks (-10)
Lions (+4.5)
Broncos (-6)
Steelers (+3.5)
Browns (+2.5)
Packers (+3)
Chargers (-9)
Colts (-5)
Week 2 Record 10-5
Season Record 17-14
Thursday, September 18, 2008
OAC Journeymen Part 1 (2 of 2)
5. Greg Tyson Jr. (Heidelberg): Aside from Brandon Mimes, the best dunker in the OAC the last 4 years. He makes this list because he was a 4 year player, a two sport athlete, and a really cool guy. A true slasher. He was a very good alley-oop catcher, something Brandon Mimes was only okay at. He disappeared for a weeks at a time throughout his career, but his dunks and big games were notable. He played out of his mind a couple times against us at Heidelberg. And while were on the subject, Heidelberg's gym is by far my least favorite gym ever. I dont think I ever made a three or two consecutive free throws there in 4 years. It was dark, the rims were shit, the crowd was annoying. It was a terrible facility.
4. Zach Broerman (Wilmington): A journeymen. Zach had a very consistent career. He could stroke the ball. He was unbelievable at buying fouls. It was insane. He could make it look like you were fouling him, when in reality, he was hooking the shit outta you or obviously pushing off. He never got called either. Everytime you looked at the refs expecting an offensive foul call on him, you were shocked that some ass hole ref was calling it on you. His longevity in the OAC was impressive and thats why hes on this list. Another potential Party Team candidate.
3. Brendan Shuler (Baldwin Wallace): Big time player. Got better and better as the years went on. The best passer in the league. Great shooter. Bub and I played against each other for a long time. The journeymen bond is big between him and I. We played against each other in grade school a lot. Never really played with each other much, but will probably team up for the next couple decades in the lakewood y league.
2. Jeremy Ady (Muskingum): Ady typifies the term OAC journeyman. The heart and soul of the muskies during his career. When I was a freshmen, we were the best team in the league and musky beat us twice, and probably should have beaten us three times. Ady had the game winning tip at John Carroll to send us reeling to a 13-1 record. It was great tip too. I thought we were gonna go undefeated at that point. He was a solid solid player. Could shoot the 3. Could draw you out and go by you. Would occasionally post a mis-match and use his bulk. Lost a bit of game when Brandon Todd came on the Musky scene. Nevertheless, if you have a list of OAC journeymen, Ady has to be on it.
1. Andrew Lemmon/Brian Shmidt (Heidelberg): Had to fit these two in because they were there from the beginning, and they were really good. Lemmon was the best player in the league this year by a pretty wide margin. He was nasty. Double doubles, efficiency, toughness. Shmidty was a great post player. Best up and under move in the league's history. Nice faceup game. Both these guys kept getting better, and if we didnt win the OAC chip, it was nice to see them cash one in.
Well there you have it. An extensive list of OAC journeymen. This is quite a compliment to have. I bet you're thinking "hey JC, where are you on this list? Afterall, you are probably the greatest journeyman of the last 4 years?"
I agree with you guys. JC has become synonymous with the words: nasty game, toughness, closer and journeymen. I am comfortable enough with my game that I don't have to be on this list. But make no mistake, I am the journeyman. My peers know full well what kind of game I had in big games. My OAC tournament and NCAA statistics speak for themselves. Keep your eye out for the ALL-OAC PARTY TEAM/WANNA PARTY WITH TEAM. It should be coming in the next couple weeks. Followed by a 3 part OAC 2008-09 Season Preview. OUT.
jcIII
4. Zach Broerman (Wilmington): A journeymen. Zach had a very consistent career. He could stroke the ball. He was unbelievable at buying fouls. It was insane. He could make it look like you were fouling him, when in reality, he was hooking the shit outta you or obviously pushing off. He never got called either. Everytime you looked at the refs expecting an offensive foul call on him, you were shocked that some ass hole ref was calling it on you. His longevity in the OAC was impressive and thats why hes on this list. Another potential Party Team candidate.
3. Brendan Shuler (Baldwin Wallace): Big time player. Got better and better as the years went on. The best passer in the league. Great shooter. Bub and I played against each other for a long time. The journeymen bond is big between him and I. We played against each other in grade school a lot. Never really played with each other much, but will probably team up for the next couple decades in the lakewood y league.
2. Jeremy Ady (Muskingum): Ady typifies the term OAC journeyman. The heart and soul of the muskies during his career. When I was a freshmen, we were the best team in the league and musky beat us twice, and probably should have beaten us three times. Ady had the game winning tip at John Carroll to send us reeling to a 13-1 record. It was great tip too. I thought we were gonna go undefeated at that point. He was a solid solid player. Could shoot the 3. Could draw you out and go by you. Would occasionally post a mis-match and use his bulk. Lost a bit of game when Brandon Todd came on the Musky scene. Nevertheless, if you have a list of OAC journeymen, Ady has to be on it.
1. Andrew Lemmon/Brian Shmidt (Heidelberg): Had to fit these two in because they were there from the beginning, and they were really good. Lemmon was the best player in the league this year by a pretty wide margin. He was nasty. Double doubles, efficiency, toughness. Shmidty was a great post player. Best up and under move in the league's history. Nice faceup game. Both these guys kept getting better, and if we didnt win the OAC chip, it was nice to see them cash one in.
Well there you have it. An extensive list of OAC journeymen. This is quite a compliment to have. I bet you're thinking "hey JC, where are you on this list? Afterall, you are probably the greatest journeyman of the last 4 years?"
I agree with you guys. JC has become synonymous with the words: nasty game, toughness, closer and journeymen. I am comfortable enough with my game that I don't have to be on this list. But make no mistake, I am the journeyman. My peers know full well what kind of game I had in big games. My OAC tournament and NCAA statistics speak for themselves. Keep your eye out for the ALL-OAC PARTY TEAM/WANNA PARTY WITH TEAM. It should be coming in the next couple weeks. Followed by a 3 part OAC 2008-09 Season Preview. OUT.
jcIII
OAC Journeymen Part 1 (of 2)
Special double dip this week...in addition to my weekly picks article...I will also be writing a special two-part article detailing some of the greatest OAC journeymen of my career in the league. My former teammate, current potential journeymen, and great friend Rudy Kirbus gave me the idea for the article because it's always a major topic of discussion between the two of us. I jumped at the idea, considering that the term OAC journeyman is the highest honor that can be bestowed upon a player in the league. It's a special fraternity of guys that achieved phenomenal success in the league, and left their mark on the league in a big way. This is the kind of article that really should be turned into a 150 page book. So, it is going to be difficult to do justice to some of these players. As I am sitting here thinking about how to write this, I am trying to find the appropriate metrics and pre-requisites in order to be eligible to be on this list. I think for the most part, I am going to write as I go, finding reasons why guys should make this top 12 list subjectively. Everyone on this list however will be my graduating class. Yes, it is unfair to the Mike Grogans, Tyler Ousleys, and Cole Pittis' but it is more relevant to me, as my colleagues and I in the class of 08 have a special journeyman bond. In no particular order....
10. Tyler Sekarak (Baldwin Wallace): A very cerebral player, Tyler was a great 4 year player for BW. Great floor game, dominant defender, always played well in big games. Always at the top of the list in steals, and made a lot of big plays that didnt show up in the stat sheet. Peaked in his sophomore year when BW ran through the league on their way to the NCAA tourney. When I said in no particular order I mean it, because he's easily in the top 5 of all time. More than anything, we have kinda become buddies over the summer, and he's a really cool guy who is fun to drink with. A definite candidate for the All OAC Who Would You Wanna Party With, another article you can look forward to in the coming weeks.
9. Kyle Gehle (ONU): Makes the list only because he was a 4 year player, skilled, with a lot of game. Other than that, pretty big douchebag. Much like his ass hole choke artist predecessors (Badenhop, Lee etc.) all he has is his 4 years and 1000 points. ONU never won one big game, no championships and they had the most skilled talented kids pretty much every year. I mean it was hilarious my junior year, when ONU was so over-hyped and we smashed them twice. Yet, they were still in that top 25 every week. It was always a game that you perceived as a tough during the week, but you were always pretty confident you were gonna win because these pussies would crack in the last 3 minutes. No heart, no guts, no confidence--essential qualities for an OAC journeymen. Having said all that, the guy had some game.
8. Fred Harrison (Wilmington): An obvious choice. Fred was a pretty good player. Really athletic swingman. Fred was a catalyst for Wilmington when they made their runs and surges up the rankings in the OAC. Wilmington doesnt have much to show for themselves, but they had a knack for beating good teams on the road and at home. They always went on a nice run in the league at some point, beating good teams along the way. Fred got A LOTTA buzz this summer when he went to NY for a hoops summit for guys who wanna go overseas. He knocked down some 3's, which he was perfectly capable of, made some athletic plays, and turned some heads. He'll be overseas for a couple years, plenty good enough.
7. Shawn Shriver (Heidelberg): Exploded onto the scene with his tatoos during his freshman year, and had a nice career. Capped off a nice run with an OAC title his senior year, which validated his career and the careers of a couple of his colleagues that may appear on this list later. Really strong, good driver, good shooter. He was a great offensive player. He and I were always pretty cool with each other. I think for the most part me and him were pretty even with each other all things considered. I would probably say he was a little better. A DEFINITE candidate for OAC All Party team, as his drinking decisions became somewhat notorious his senior year.
6. Ross Banazsak (Otterbein): Ross was a force most nights in the OAC. Drove it well, got to the line where he was automatic, and shot the 3 ball pretty good. He had the ball 95% of the time, which made it easy for him to play well and make things happen. He got better and better as he went, mostly due to the fact that the whole offense ran around him. He was a strong driver and pretty creative. Not easy to guard. Another guy who doesnt have much to show for himself other than 1000 points, short shorts, and Ross Jr.
In the afternoon, PART 2 and closing remarks...
10. Tyler Sekarak (Baldwin Wallace): A very cerebral player, Tyler was a great 4 year player for BW. Great floor game, dominant defender, always played well in big games. Always at the top of the list in steals, and made a lot of big plays that didnt show up in the stat sheet. Peaked in his sophomore year when BW ran through the league on their way to the NCAA tourney. When I said in no particular order I mean it, because he's easily in the top 5 of all time. More than anything, we have kinda become buddies over the summer, and he's a really cool guy who is fun to drink with. A definite candidate for the All OAC Who Would You Wanna Party With, another article you can look forward to in the coming weeks.
9. Kyle Gehle (ONU): Makes the list only because he was a 4 year player, skilled, with a lot of game. Other than that, pretty big douchebag. Much like his ass hole choke artist predecessors (Badenhop, Lee etc.) all he has is his 4 years and 1000 points. ONU never won one big game, no championships and they had the most skilled talented kids pretty much every year. I mean it was hilarious my junior year, when ONU was so over-hyped and we smashed them twice. Yet, they were still in that top 25 every week. It was always a game that you perceived as a tough during the week, but you were always pretty confident you were gonna win because these pussies would crack in the last 3 minutes. No heart, no guts, no confidence--essential qualities for an OAC journeymen. Having said all that, the guy had some game.
8. Fred Harrison (Wilmington): An obvious choice. Fred was a pretty good player. Really athletic swingman. Fred was a catalyst for Wilmington when they made their runs and surges up the rankings in the OAC. Wilmington doesnt have much to show for themselves, but they had a knack for beating good teams on the road and at home. They always went on a nice run in the league at some point, beating good teams along the way. Fred got A LOTTA buzz this summer when he went to NY for a hoops summit for guys who wanna go overseas. He knocked down some 3's, which he was perfectly capable of, made some athletic plays, and turned some heads. He'll be overseas for a couple years, plenty good enough.
7. Shawn Shriver (Heidelberg): Exploded onto the scene with his tatoos during his freshman year, and had a nice career. Capped off a nice run with an OAC title his senior year, which validated his career and the careers of a couple of his colleagues that may appear on this list later. Really strong, good driver, good shooter. He was a great offensive player. He and I were always pretty cool with each other. I think for the most part me and him were pretty even with each other all things considered. I would probably say he was a little better. A DEFINITE candidate for OAC All Party team, as his drinking decisions became somewhat notorious his senior year.
6. Ross Banazsak (Otterbein): Ross was a force most nights in the OAC. Drove it well, got to the line where he was automatic, and shot the 3 ball pretty good. He had the ball 95% of the time, which made it easy for him to play well and make things happen. He got better and better as he went, mostly due to the fact that the whole offense ran around him. He was a strong driver and pretty creative. Not easy to guard. Another guy who doesnt have much to show for himself other than 1000 points, short shorts, and Ross Jr.
In the afternoon, PART 2 and closing remarks...
Friday, September 12, 2008
Week 2 Lines
We are back for the Week 2 line picks...and I am very much excited to see if I can redeem myself after a very sub par performance in week 1 based on my skill level. And after the 3 nights of crying myself to sleep after going 7-9 on my first weekly pick article for a big audience I realized that picking every game is kinda silly, especially when you picking against the spread. It's pretty simple, picking ATS in the NFL is BAD NEWS. It is not fun. It is very hard. So, I am still gonna pick every game just for the sake of measuring it over a whole season, but in my closing thoughts I wanna discuss 4 games that I am pretty confident about, and would potentially bet if gambling was legal. However, I will say that a lot of my comments and predictions were pretty solid.
Just a follow up on what I touched on last week, Entourage and Mad Men did not disappoint last week. They both gave us big efforts, and their is a lot to be excited about in the weeks to come with those two shows. My sister DVRs One Tree Hill, and I have kinda started to piece through that again. I watched the first season pretty closely. I think it came out my senior year in high school. But it really is a pretty good show. I have missed several pivotal seasons but its pretty watchable. So well see how that goes in the future. On with the picks.
Home team in caps
CHIEFS (-3.5) OVER Raiders: God I feel bad for Lane Kiffin. Here's a really smart, young, charasmatic guy, who was calling the shots at USC and winning national titles. And he's leaves a stress free environment with the best college coach on the planet to go work for Al Davis and one of the worst run franchises in the NFL. And it's been a nightmare ever since. He didnt look like he was having much fun on Monday night. The life has just been sucked out of him, and its way too early in his career for that. Anyway, I am sure when he gets fired next year, he will be better for it in his next head coaching gig down the road. Not a very big decision to fawn over here. I think the Chiefs win and the artist formerly known as Larry Johnson shows up nice.
Titans (+1) OVER BENGALS: Another bad early game that I is hard to give an educated pick on unless youre a degenerate. The Titans D seemed to be pretty fierce, and LenDALE White and the next big thing Chris Johnson were strong. Johnson is a baller. Carson Palmer has just never been the same since his knee injury. Pats fans should be worried. Brady might be on the same path. I wanna see Chad Cinco have a big 12 for 225 and 2TDs so he can remain somewhat relevant as a football player.
VIKINGS (+2) OVER Colts: Man, did the Colts look pretty average last Sunday. We don't know a ton about these teams because the Bears and the Packers could be pretty good teams. Matt Forte ran through that Colts D pretty effortlessly. Adrian Peterson might have a huge game. This will be a good game. Both teams need this game for psyche purposes.
REDSKINS (+1) OVER Saints: I am far from giving up on the Jim Zorn era. He got thrashed pretty bad by the media after that dismal performance against the Giants. I like them to look much better and get a quality win here. Where do you guys stand on Kim Kardashian? I think she has big talent, but I wouldnt necessarily have her in my top 10. Just thinking about it for a minute, I think my current top 3 HB's are tennis star Ana Ivanovic, Gossip Girl's Leighton Meester and Blake Lively, and Nastia Luikin.
Packers (-3) OVER LIONS: So far, so good for the new look Pack. They seem to be a pretty nice squad, and favorites to win that division. They have a lot of great young guys. That Greg Jennings is a BEAST. Very Colston like. As good as he is, he's the third best receiver on the field this week, no questions asked.
PANTHERS (-3) OVER Bears: I have to see more of the Bears in order to buy them. They caught the Colts at a good time, got a breakout game from Matt Forte, and Kyle Orton managed the game a little better than normal. Like I said last week, the Panthers are frisky and they compete pretty well. Might be a Devin Hester sighting that can swing this game. This is a big game for both teams here though, and should be a defensive struggle.
Giants (-9) OVER RAMS: The Rams are a joke man. Scott Linehan, how does that guy still have a job? I guarantee he quits or resigns and he won't be the only guy this year to do it (Marvin Lewis is a lock too).
Bills (+5) OVER JAGS: Bills were getting a lotta late buzz like I said last week, and they played pretty well last week. Nice sleeper team. M. Lynch is a monster. Jags are in a tough situation right now, with the shooting incident being the catalyst in their demise.
BUCS (-7) OVER Falcons: Brian Griese giving 7 points is a very scary proposition, but Im gonna take it. I like Tampa's D to keep Michael Turner under 200. Matt Ryan's first road start will hopefully go terribly, so my prediction last week will seem somewhat true. I like the Bucs big this week.
49ers (+7) OVER SEAHAWKS: Two words: JT O'Sullivan.
CARDINALS (-7) OVER Dolphins: I was rooting pretty hard for the Fins last week. I am back to being indifferent about them this week. I wanted Pennington to stick it to the Jets, but at the same time, I didnt wanna hear about how much of a genius The Tuna is if they would have been 1-0 after a 1-15 campaign last year. Love Kurt Warner. He comes on Jim Rome a lot. Great guy.
Pats (+1) OVER JETS: Very intriguing game. This injury to Brady is a bad thing for the Pats no question about it. But it does kind of put them back into the position where they won 3 Super Bowls. No respect. Everybody's counting them out. This is the corner that the Hoody likes to be in. I hope Jaws keeps a close eye on Randy Moss in the next couple weeks in his film breakdowns. He might check out quick if things go south. I think this old old D cowboys up for a nice win.
Chargers (PK) OVER BRONCOS: I like the Bolts here.
Steelers (-6) OVER BROWNS: Sitting in the office here today, one of the advisors had lunch downtown. He sat with a guy close to the Browns, and he had some pretty good tid bits about the Browns and LeBron. He said that Lerner, the owner of the team, went CRAZY when Romeo kicked that field goal last week. And he almost fired him on the spot. And if the Browns lay an egg Sunday night, Romeo might be out on Monday. The Steelers are the best team in the NFL, and theyll just put HEAT on DA. The Browns tried to throw this huge blitz scheme at the Cowboys last week and it was a complete joke. They gotta watch film of the Steelers and see how they disguise stuff and bluff blitzes and really mix it up and deceive you. The Browns were so obvious with things and the Cowboys just picked stuff up and Romo picked it apart like he was ordering lunch with Jessica Simpson. Bright side, if the Browns win here, they are in GREAT shape. A win here, and all the sadness and despair turns into Super Bowl talk again.
COWBOYS (+7) OVER Eagles: Great game. Two teams that are fun to watch. Donovan v. TO. Well see how Romo responds to being the new best QB in the league. Im pretty happy about my DeShawn Jackson call. I think the Cowboys are playing with a lotta confidence and might just steam roll the Eagles. I think the Eagles are pretty formiddable. Might not matter. Romo struggled against the Eagles last year. It was the game that Jessica Simpson was there. Doubtful that she will be there this week.
TEXANS OVER Ravens: No line here because the game got moved because of Hurricane Ike. I like the Texans to bounce back.
WEEK 1: 7-9
Season Record: 7-9
jcIII
Just a follow up on what I touched on last week, Entourage and Mad Men did not disappoint last week. They both gave us big efforts, and their is a lot to be excited about in the weeks to come with those two shows. My sister DVRs One Tree Hill, and I have kinda started to piece through that again. I watched the first season pretty closely. I think it came out my senior year in high school. But it really is a pretty good show. I have missed several pivotal seasons but its pretty watchable. So well see how that goes in the future. On with the picks.
Home team in caps
CHIEFS (-3.5) OVER Raiders: God I feel bad for Lane Kiffin. Here's a really smart, young, charasmatic guy, who was calling the shots at USC and winning national titles. And he's leaves a stress free environment with the best college coach on the planet to go work for Al Davis and one of the worst run franchises in the NFL. And it's been a nightmare ever since. He didnt look like he was having much fun on Monday night. The life has just been sucked out of him, and its way too early in his career for that. Anyway, I am sure when he gets fired next year, he will be better for it in his next head coaching gig down the road. Not a very big decision to fawn over here. I think the Chiefs win and the artist formerly known as Larry Johnson shows up nice.
Titans (+1) OVER BENGALS: Another bad early game that I is hard to give an educated pick on unless youre a degenerate. The Titans D seemed to be pretty fierce, and LenDALE White and the next big thing Chris Johnson were strong. Johnson is a baller. Carson Palmer has just never been the same since his knee injury. Pats fans should be worried. Brady might be on the same path. I wanna see Chad Cinco have a big 12 for 225 and 2TDs so he can remain somewhat relevant as a football player.
VIKINGS (+2) OVER Colts: Man, did the Colts look pretty average last Sunday. We don't know a ton about these teams because the Bears and the Packers could be pretty good teams. Matt Forte ran through that Colts D pretty effortlessly. Adrian Peterson might have a huge game. This will be a good game. Both teams need this game for psyche purposes.
REDSKINS (+1) OVER Saints: I am far from giving up on the Jim Zorn era. He got thrashed pretty bad by the media after that dismal performance against the Giants. I like them to look much better and get a quality win here. Where do you guys stand on Kim Kardashian? I think she has big talent, but I wouldnt necessarily have her in my top 10. Just thinking about it for a minute, I think my current top 3 HB's are tennis star Ana Ivanovic, Gossip Girl's Leighton Meester and Blake Lively, and Nastia Luikin.
Packers (-3) OVER LIONS: So far, so good for the new look Pack. They seem to be a pretty nice squad, and favorites to win that division. They have a lot of great young guys. That Greg Jennings is a BEAST. Very Colston like. As good as he is, he's the third best receiver on the field this week, no questions asked.
PANTHERS (-3) OVER Bears: I have to see more of the Bears in order to buy them. They caught the Colts at a good time, got a breakout game from Matt Forte, and Kyle Orton managed the game a little better than normal. Like I said last week, the Panthers are frisky and they compete pretty well. Might be a Devin Hester sighting that can swing this game. This is a big game for both teams here though, and should be a defensive struggle.
Giants (-9) OVER RAMS: The Rams are a joke man. Scott Linehan, how does that guy still have a job? I guarantee he quits or resigns and he won't be the only guy this year to do it (Marvin Lewis is a lock too).
Bills (+5) OVER JAGS: Bills were getting a lotta late buzz like I said last week, and they played pretty well last week. Nice sleeper team. M. Lynch is a monster. Jags are in a tough situation right now, with the shooting incident being the catalyst in their demise.
BUCS (-7) OVER Falcons: Brian Griese giving 7 points is a very scary proposition, but Im gonna take it. I like Tampa's D to keep Michael Turner under 200. Matt Ryan's first road start will hopefully go terribly, so my prediction last week will seem somewhat true. I like the Bucs big this week.
49ers (+7) OVER SEAHAWKS: Two words: JT O'Sullivan.
CARDINALS (-7) OVER Dolphins: I was rooting pretty hard for the Fins last week. I am back to being indifferent about them this week. I wanted Pennington to stick it to the Jets, but at the same time, I didnt wanna hear about how much of a genius The Tuna is if they would have been 1-0 after a 1-15 campaign last year. Love Kurt Warner. He comes on Jim Rome a lot. Great guy.
Pats (+1) OVER JETS: Very intriguing game. This injury to Brady is a bad thing for the Pats no question about it. But it does kind of put them back into the position where they won 3 Super Bowls. No respect. Everybody's counting them out. This is the corner that the Hoody likes to be in. I hope Jaws keeps a close eye on Randy Moss in the next couple weeks in his film breakdowns. He might check out quick if things go south. I think this old old D cowboys up for a nice win.
Chargers (PK) OVER BRONCOS: I like the Bolts here.
Steelers (-6) OVER BROWNS: Sitting in the office here today, one of the advisors had lunch downtown. He sat with a guy close to the Browns, and he had some pretty good tid bits about the Browns and LeBron. He said that Lerner, the owner of the team, went CRAZY when Romeo kicked that field goal last week. And he almost fired him on the spot. And if the Browns lay an egg Sunday night, Romeo might be out on Monday. The Steelers are the best team in the NFL, and theyll just put HEAT on DA. The Browns tried to throw this huge blitz scheme at the Cowboys last week and it was a complete joke. They gotta watch film of the Steelers and see how they disguise stuff and bluff blitzes and really mix it up and deceive you. The Browns were so obvious with things and the Cowboys just picked stuff up and Romo picked it apart like he was ordering lunch with Jessica Simpson. Bright side, if the Browns win here, they are in GREAT shape. A win here, and all the sadness and despair turns into Super Bowl talk again.
COWBOYS (+7) OVER Eagles: Great game. Two teams that are fun to watch. Donovan v. TO. Well see how Romo responds to being the new best QB in the league. Im pretty happy about my DeShawn Jackson call. I think the Cowboys are playing with a lotta confidence and might just steam roll the Eagles. I think the Eagles are pretty formiddable. Might not matter. Romo struggled against the Eagles last year. It was the game that Jessica Simpson was there. Doubtful that she will be there this week.
TEXANS OVER Ravens: No line here because the game got moved because of Hurricane Ike. I like the Texans to bounce back.
WEEK 1: 7-9
Season Record: 7-9
jcIII
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Week 1 Picks
On the eve of the 2008-2009 NFL football season kickoff, I thought I would take some time to make some picks. I am gonna try to make this a weekly thing, but I will probably miss a couple weeks. And to be completely honest with all of you, I would say that I am not very prepared for this upcoming NFL season. I really don't have a tremendous feel about the teams. I like to believe that I have a unique feel and perspective and am a pretty good picker, and hopefully this blog arena will expose me for what I really am. I have been busy with a lot of things throughout the summer and this month, and haven't really watched or read good NFL stuff. As the season progresses, I am going to try my best to provide a little more insight into why I like the picks through numbers and trends, in addition to just feel and subjective thinking. I do read Michael Lombardi everyday and for those who don't read him should probably start. He knows his shit.
Possibly the biggest question that my readers have been emailing me non-stop about is the question about what am I gonna watch at the 10pm hour: Mad Men or the season premiere of Entourage? Very good question. Short answer is Entourage cause its the season premiere and its been my favorite show for a couple years. I can DVR Mad Men. But the Mad Men v. Entourage is a great topic that might provoke a column devoted entirely to that debate.
(Home team in caps)
GIANTS (-4) OVER Redskins: I like the Giants here. I think it will be the case of the Giants being a little better in every facet of the game. It's Jim Zorn's first game as a head coach, and I really like this guy from what I have read about him. He seems like a pretty cool customer. But, Plax Burress is healthy, Eli is playing with a lotta confidence, and I think they do just enough to win and cover.
BUFFALO (-1) OVER Seahawks: The Bills are getting a lotta late buzz. I like them here at home only a little bit. I think Marshawn Lynch is a pretty nice player, set to have a nice year for his fantasy owners. The Seahawks are old and banged up and seem to be content with playing a rotation of 4-5 average running backs. My dad used to work with a guy who played QB behind Matt Hassleback at BC, and he said MH is not a very good guy and was an ass to him. I have always kinda held that against him. However, he's definitely good enough to win this game for the Seahawks on his own. I like the Bills here.
Lions (-3) OVER FALCONS: I hope I am wrong, but I am definitely picking against Matt Ryan for at least the first 6 weeks. I mean I thought he was very average at BC even in his big stat games. He seems like a really cool guy, who definitely has something about him. Todd McShay loved him and graded him off the charts. Mel Kiper was a little less admiring, but still felt he was pretty good. So it will be interesting to see. I'm not a buyer of him yet. I think Calvin Johnson kills it this year. He's a freak of nature. It's a shame one of these teams will be on pace for 16-0 after week 1.
Bengals (-1.5) OVER RAVENS: I don't have a feel for either of these teams. This is a weird line. I think this is an anti-Joe Flacco line. If Troy Smith is starting this game, I am positive Vegas would have the Ravens favored by at least 14 points. Aaron Shatz, author of Pro Football Prospectus has the Ravens winning the division as one of his sleeper off the wall predictions. It's hard to pick against my former teammate and special teams phenom Haruki Nakamura. I don't like this Bengals team at all, but I like them this week.
EAGLES (-7.5) OVER Rams: Philly's getting A LOTTA BUZZ. Where's Steven Jackson at in his preparation? Deshawn Jackson outta Cal is an intriguing guy. Lotta fantasy geeks might be waiting for that 2am waiver wire after the first week to scoop him up. I think he's a little skinny, but might be McNabb's guy this year in the seams. Could be the beginning of the end for Marc Bulger, but at the same time he could have a monster year left in him. Probably gonna be the last year for Scott Linehan in Saint Louis.
Texans (+7) OVER STEELERS: This is the first game I did not pick the favored team. I like the Steelers to pull it in a high scoring game. Santonio Holmes is getting a lotta break out buzz, and it will be interesting to see where Willy Parker is physically. Mendenhall is another intriguing guy. I think this Texans team is frisky though, and potentially a wild card team. Matt Shaub could have a nice season in year two as a starter. Texans have a nice front four that could give Big Ben some heat. I think this game will be right on the line either way.
TITANS (+3) OVER Jaguars : A nice physical game that features my big sleeper of the year: Titan's RB Chris Johnson from ECU. NEVER a good omen for the season when an OT gets shot at 3am in the middle of preparation for week 1. That unfortunate incident is why I am going with the Titans. The Jags are good. I like them to rack up 10-11 games again this year. I think they'll be a little distracted this week though. More than anything I think this pick is a challenge to VY. Let's see Vince Young do it this year huh? I mean why does he get such a free pass when talking about busts? The guy stinks. He's done very little since he made that amazing run to beat the Texans in OT his rookie year. We crush Matt Leinart but VY seems to skate criticism all the time.
Buccaneers (+3) OVER SAINTS: Minor upset here. I think the Bucs sneak up on the Saints this week amidst Hurricane Gustav. Luckily, the game will go on as scheduled, but the Saints players have had to agonize over the what ifs all week. Brees-Shockey-Colston-Bush is a nice attack. I don't know what to think about either team, nor care. We'll see how it plays out.
PATRIOTS (-16.5) OVER Chiefs: LOTTA points to cover for the Pats right outta the shoot! Vegas is obviously implementing a "Pats tax" this year, like they have for the Colts the past few years. It will be interesting to see the Chiefs a year after the Hard Knocks cameras are off them. But, what's Brodie Croyle gonna do against this old, old banged up Pats D? My guess is nothing just turn and hand off 35 times and pray that it stays close. I kinda like the Chiefs from a gambling perspective, but I think Brady will settle in. LT doesn't do the pre-season. Peyton doesn't do the preseason. Why should Brady?
DOLPHINS (+3) OVER Jets: Definite STAY AWAY game. Don't you feel like Pennington sticks it to them? I feel like Ted Ginn Jr. returns a punt, and they get some lucky 80 yard fumble return. At the same time, lotta buzz about Broadway Brett and Jets. They added a lotta pieces. Thomas Jones has looked great. Jericho Cotchery is a dangerous little player. There was a report this week talking about how Brett doesn't know anybody on the team's name. He calls everyone ace, buddy, partner, homeslice etc. I thought that was pretty funny. I like the Dolphins to overachieve this year in the Tuna's first season in the helm. Tuna's team always seem to have good first years: i.e. 10-6 first year with the Cowboys with Quincy Carter as the QB.
Cardinals (-2.5) OVER 49ERS: Both teams suck equally.
CHARGERS (-9.5) OVER Panthers: Nice game here. I think Carolina is a little frisky. I think this is too many points. This could be the last game of Sean "lights out" Merriman's career, barring he doesn't tear every ligament in his knee in one play. Where's LT in his preparation? Same with Phillip Rivers? Without Steve Smith, I think the Chargers do enough to win and cover here.
Dallas (-5.5) OVER BROWNS: Unfortunately, I don't love the Browns here. I think they're gonna have a tough time covering and stopping the Cowboys. I hope they show up huge and blow them out, but they have just been rattled by these injuries. I mean, our best player Josh Cribbs is nursing a high ankle sprain, which is a nagging injury. Braylon is a question mark with his little injury. K2 is always a health question mark. DA has just been getting crushed by all these analysts who are hedging their bets on the Browns like crazy after months and months of positive hype. I am pulling for DA to play a nice season and play well in big games. We got blown out the first game of last year and were able to have a great season. I hope we can get outta this week with a lot of improvement and injury free and look forward to our next daunting opponent on a brutal schedule. This isnt gonna be a fun season for the Cowboys. Sure, they'll probably go 13-3 14-2, but it will all be predicated on if they can get off the snide in the playoffs. The Pac Man story line is great stuff too. I'll set the over under at 9 weeks before Pac hits a "scrip club." 7 weeks if he is "being rebellion."
COLTS (-9.5) OVER Bears: The "Indy tax" is in full effect here, but I still like them. I think Peyton will have more than enough to beat the fighting Devin Hesters. Kyle Orton sucks. We'll see sexy Rexy before their buy week. Peyton is the only question mark here this week. I think Tony Gonzalez is legit and will have a nice year next to Reggie weezy Wayne. If Harrison is healthy that will be a scary bonus. Now that I am thinking about it Jeff Saturday being out for the first 6 games is a huge blow for the Colts. They should have enough this week though at home.
Broncos (-3) OVER Raiders: I like Jay Cutler to have a nice season. Same goes for RUN DMC.
Vikings (+3) OVER PACKERS: I'm gonna buy into the Vikes hype machine in week 1.
As I stated in the preface, this is not as solid or confident as I wanted the week 1 picks to be. But it is what is. I think last year I went 13-2-1 in the first week of picks. Things seem to go according to plan in week 1 but who knows. As I sit here finishing this up, I am feeling for of a 9-5-2 type week 1 in terms of picks. Nice time of the year to be a sports fan and a TV fan. Lotta football coming up from here till February.
jcIII
Possibly the biggest question that my readers have been emailing me non-stop about is the question about what am I gonna watch at the 10pm hour: Mad Men or the season premiere of Entourage? Very good question. Short answer is Entourage cause its the season premiere and its been my favorite show for a couple years. I can DVR Mad Men. But the Mad Men v. Entourage is a great topic that might provoke a column devoted entirely to that debate.
(Home team in caps)
GIANTS (-4) OVER Redskins: I like the Giants here. I think it will be the case of the Giants being a little better in every facet of the game. It's Jim Zorn's first game as a head coach, and I really like this guy from what I have read about him. He seems like a pretty cool customer. But, Plax Burress is healthy, Eli is playing with a lotta confidence, and I think they do just enough to win and cover.
BUFFALO (-1) OVER Seahawks: The Bills are getting a lotta late buzz. I like them here at home only a little bit. I think Marshawn Lynch is a pretty nice player, set to have a nice year for his fantasy owners. The Seahawks are old and banged up and seem to be content with playing a rotation of 4-5 average running backs. My dad used to work with a guy who played QB behind Matt Hassleback at BC, and he said MH is not a very good guy and was an ass to him. I have always kinda held that against him. However, he's definitely good enough to win this game for the Seahawks on his own. I like the Bills here.
Lions (-3) OVER FALCONS: I hope I am wrong, but I am definitely picking against Matt Ryan for at least the first 6 weeks. I mean I thought he was very average at BC even in his big stat games. He seems like a really cool guy, who definitely has something about him. Todd McShay loved him and graded him off the charts. Mel Kiper was a little less admiring, but still felt he was pretty good. So it will be interesting to see. I'm not a buyer of him yet. I think Calvin Johnson kills it this year. He's a freak of nature. It's a shame one of these teams will be on pace for 16-0 after week 1.
Bengals (-1.5) OVER RAVENS: I don't have a feel for either of these teams. This is a weird line. I think this is an anti-Joe Flacco line. If Troy Smith is starting this game, I am positive Vegas would have the Ravens favored by at least 14 points. Aaron Shatz, author of Pro Football Prospectus has the Ravens winning the division as one of his sleeper off the wall predictions. It's hard to pick against my former teammate and special teams phenom Haruki Nakamura. I don't like this Bengals team at all, but I like them this week.
EAGLES (-7.5) OVER Rams: Philly's getting A LOTTA BUZZ. Where's Steven Jackson at in his preparation? Deshawn Jackson outta Cal is an intriguing guy. Lotta fantasy geeks might be waiting for that 2am waiver wire after the first week to scoop him up. I think he's a little skinny, but might be McNabb's guy this year in the seams. Could be the beginning of the end for Marc Bulger, but at the same time he could have a monster year left in him. Probably gonna be the last year for Scott Linehan in Saint Louis.
Texans (+7) OVER STEELERS: This is the first game I did not pick the favored team. I like the Steelers to pull it in a high scoring game. Santonio Holmes is getting a lotta break out buzz, and it will be interesting to see where Willy Parker is physically. Mendenhall is another intriguing guy. I think this Texans team is frisky though, and potentially a wild card team. Matt Shaub could have a nice season in year two as a starter. Texans have a nice front four that could give Big Ben some heat. I think this game will be right on the line either way.
TITANS (+3) OVER Jaguars : A nice physical game that features my big sleeper of the year: Titan's RB Chris Johnson from ECU. NEVER a good omen for the season when an OT gets shot at 3am in the middle of preparation for week 1. That unfortunate incident is why I am going with the Titans. The Jags are good. I like them to rack up 10-11 games again this year. I think they'll be a little distracted this week though. More than anything I think this pick is a challenge to VY. Let's see Vince Young do it this year huh? I mean why does he get such a free pass when talking about busts? The guy stinks. He's done very little since he made that amazing run to beat the Texans in OT his rookie year. We crush Matt Leinart but VY seems to skate criticism all the time.
Buccaneers (+3) OVER SAINTS: Minor upset here. I think the Bucs sneak up on the Saints this week amidst Hurricane Gustav. Luckily, the game will go on as scheduled, but the Saints players have had to agonize over the what ifs all week. Brees-Shockey-Colston-Bush is a nice attack. I don't know what to think about either team, nor care. We'll see how it plays out.
PATRIOTS (-16.5) OVER Chiefs: LOTTA points to cover for the Pats right outta the shoot! Vegas is obviously implementing a "Pats tax" this year, like they have for the Colts the past few years. It will be interesting to see the Chiefs a year after the Hard Knocks cameras are off them. But, what's Brodie Croyle gonna do against this old, old banged up Pats D? My guess is nothing just turn and hand off 35 times and pray that it stays close. I kinda like the Chiefs from a gambling perspective, but I think Brady will settle in. LT doesn't do the pre-season. Peyton doesn't do the preseason. Why should Brady?
DOLPHINS (+3) OVER Jets: Definite STAY AWAY game. Don't you feel like Pennington sticks it to them? I feel like Ted Ginn Jr. returns a punt, and they get some lucky 80 yard fumble return. At the same time, lotta buzz about Broadway Brett and Jets. They added a lotta pieces. Thomas Jones has looked great. Jericho Cotchery is a dangerous little player. There was a report this week talking about how Brett doesn't know anybody on the team's name. He calls everyone ace, buddy, partner, homeslice etc. I thought that was pretty funny. I like the Dolphins to overachieve this year in the Tuna's first season in the helm. Tuna's team always seem to have good first years: i.e. 10-6 first year with the Cowboys with Quincy Carter as the QB.
Cardinals (-2.5) OVER 49ERS: Both teams suck equally.
CHARGERS (-9.5) OVER Panthers: Nice game here. I think Carolina is a little frisky. I think this is too many points. This could be the last game of Sean "lights out" Merriman's career, barring he doesn't tear every ligament in his knee in one play. Where's LT in his preparation? Same with Phillip Rivers? Without Steve Smith, I think the Chargers do enough to win and cover here.
Dallas (-5.5) OVER BROWNS: Unfortunately, I don't love the Browns here. I think they're gonna have a tough time covering and stopping the Cowboys. I hope they show up huge and blow them out, but they have just been rattled by these injuries. I mean, our best player Josh Cribbs is nursing a high ankle sprain, which is a nagging injury. Braylon is a question mark with his little injury. K2 is always a health question mark. DA has just been getting crushed by all these analysts who are hedging their bets on the Browns like crazy after months and months of positive hype. I am pulling for DA to play a nice season and play well in big games. We got blown out the first game of last year and were able to have a great season. I hope we can get outta this week with a lot of improvement and injury free and look forward to our next daunting opponent on a brutal schedule. This isnt gonna be a fun season for the Cowboys. Sure, they'll probably go 13-3 14-2, but it will all be predicated on if they can get off the snide in the playoffs. The Pac Man story line is great stuff too. I'll set the over under at 9 weeks before Pac hits a "scrip club." 7 weeks if he is "being rebellion."
COLTS (-9.5) OVER Bears: The "Indy tax" is in full effect here, but I still like them. I think Peyton will have more than enough to beat the fighting Devin Hesters. Kyle Orton sucks. We'll see sexy Rexy before their buy week. Peyton is the only question mark here this week. I think Tony Gonzalez is legit and will have a nice year next to Reggie weezy Wayne. If Harrison is healthy that will be a scary bonus. Now that I am thinking about it Jeff Saturday being out for the first 6 games is a huge blow for the Colts. They should have enough this week though at home.
Broncos (-3) OVER Raiders: I like Jay Cutler to have a nice season. Same goes for RUN DMC.
Vikings (+3) OVER PACKERS: I'm gonna buy into the Vikes hype machine in week 1.
As I stated in the preface, this is not as solid or confident as I wanted the week 1 picks to be. But it is what is. I think last year I went 13-2-1 in the first week of picks. Things seem to go according to plan in week 1 but who knows. As I sit here finishing this up, I am feeling for of a 9-5-2 type week 1 in terms of picks. Nice time of the year to be a sports fan and a TV fan. Lotta football coming up from here till February.
jcIII
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