Week 1 Picks

On the eve of the 2008-2009 NFL football season kickoff, I thought I would take some time to make some picks. I am gonna try to make this a weekly thing, but I will probably miss a couple weeks. And to be completely honest with all of you, I would say that I am not very prepared for this upcoming NFL season. I really don't have a tremendous feel about the teams. I like to believe that I have a unique feel and perspective and am a pretty good picker, and hopefully this blog arena will expose me for what I really am. I have been busy with a lot of things throughout the summer and this month, and haven't really watched or read good NFL stuff. As the season progresses, I am going to try my best to provide a little more insight into why I like the picks through numbers and trends, in addition to just feel and subjective thinking. I do read Michael Lombardi everyday and for those who don't read him should probably start. He knows his shit.
Possibly the biggest question that my readers have been emailing me non-stop about is the question about what am I gonna watch at the 10pm hour: Mad Men or the season premiere of Entourage? Very good question. Short answer is Entourage cause its the season premiere and its been my favorite show for a couple years. I can DVR Mad Men. But the Mad Men v. Entourage is a great topic that might provoke a column devoted entirely to that debate.

(Home team in caps)

GIANTS (-4) OVER Redskins: I like the Giants here. I think it will be the case of the Giants being a little better in every facet of the game. It's Jim Zorn's first game as a head coach, and I really like this guy from what I have read about him. He seems like a pretty cool customer. But, Plax Burress is healthy, Eli is playing with a lotta confidence, and I think they do just enough to win and cover.

BUFFALO (-1) OVER Seahawks: The Bills are getting a lotta late buzz. I like them here at home only a little bit. I think Marshawn Lynch is a pretty nice player, set to have a nice year for his fantasy owners. The Seahawks are old and banged up and seem to be content with playing a rotation of 4-5 average running backs. My dad used to work with a guy who played QB behind Matt Hassleback at BC, and he said MH is not a very good guy and was an ass to him. I have always kinda held that against him. However, he's definitely good enough to win this game for the Seahawks on his own. I like the Bills here.

Lions (-3) OVER FALCONS: I hope I am wrong, but I am definitely picking against Matt Ryan for at least the first 6 weeks. I mean I thought he was very average at BC even in his big stat games. He seems like a really cool guy, who definitely has something about him. Todd McShay loved him and graded him off the charts. Mel Kiper was a little less admiring, but still felt he was pretty good. So it will be interesting to see. I'm not a buyer of him yet. I think Calvin Johnson kills it this year. He's a freak of nature. It's a shame one of these teams will be on pace for 16-0 after week 1.

Bengals (-1.5) OVER RAVENS: I don't have a feel for either of these teams. This is a weird line. I think this is an anti-Joe Flacco line. If Troy Smith is starting this game, I am positive Vegas would have the Ravens favored by at least 14 points. Aaron Shatz, author of Pro Football Prospectus has the Ravens winning the division as one of his sleeper off the wall predictions. It's hard to pick against my former teammate and special teams phenom Haruki Nakamura. I don't like this Bengals team at all, but I like them this week.

EAGLES (-7.5) OVER Rams: Philly's getting A LOTTA BUZZ. Where's Steven Jackson at in his preparation? Deshawn Jackson outta Cal is an intriguing guy. Lotta fantasy geeks might be waiting for that 2am waiver wire after the first week to scoop him up. I think he's a little skinny, but might be McNabb's guy this year in the seams. Could be the beginning of the end for Marc Bulger, but at the same time he could have a monster year left in him. Probably gonna be the last year for Scott Linehan in Saint Louis.

Texans (+7) OVER STEELERS: This is the first game I did not pick the favored team. I like the Steelers to pull it in a high scoring game. Santonio Holmes is getting a lotta break out buzz, and it will be interesting to see where Willy Parker is physically. Mendenhall is another intriguing guy. I think this Texans team is frisky though, and potentially a wild card team. Matt Shaub could have a nice season in year two as a starter. Texans have a nice front four that could give Big Ben some heat. I think this game will be right on the line either way.

TITANS (+3) OVER Jaguars : A nice physical game that features my big sleeper of the year: Titan's RB Chris Johnson from ECU. NEVER a good omen for the season when an OT gets shot at 3am in the middle of preparation for week 1. That unfortunate incident is why I am going with the Titans. The Jags are good. I like them to rack up 10-11 games again this year. I think they'll be a little distracted this week though. More than anything I think this pick is a challenge to VY. Let's see Vince Young do it this year huh? I mean why does he get such a free pass when talking about busts? The guy stinks. He's done very little since he made that amazing run to beat the Texans in OT his rookie year. We crush Matt Leinart but VY seems to skate criticism all the time.

Buccaneers (+3) OVER SAINTS: Minor upset here. I think the Bucs sneak up on the Saints this week amidst Hurricane Gustav. Luckily, the game will go on as scheduled, but the Saints players have had to agonize over the what ifs all week. Brees-Shockey-Colston-Bush is a nice attack. I don't know what to think about either team, nor care. We'll see how it plays out.

PATRIOTS (-16.5) OVER Chiefs: LOTTA points to cover for the Pats right outta the shoot! Vegas is obviously implementing a "Pats tax" this year, like they have for the Colts the past few years. It will be interesting to see the Chiefs a year after the Hard Knocks cameras are off them. But, what's Brodie Croyle gonna do against this old, old banged up Pats D? My guess is nothing just turn and hand off 35 times and pray that it stays close. I kinda like the Chiefs from a gambling perspective, but I think Brady will settle in. LT doesn't do the pre-season. Peyton doesn't do the preseason. Why should Brady?

DOLPHINS (+3) OVER Jets: Definite STAY AWAY game. Don't you feel like Pennington sticks it to them? I feel like Ted Ginn Jr. returns a punt, and they get some lucky 80 yard fumble return. At the same time, lotta buzz about Broadway Brett and Jets. They added a lotta pieces. Thomas Jones has looked great. Jericho Cotchery is a dangerous little player. There was a report this week talking about how Brett doesn't know anybody on the team's name. He calls everyone ace, buddy, partner, homeslice etc. I thought that was pretty funny. I like the Dolphins to overachieve this year in the Tuna's first season in the helm. Tuna's team always seem to have good first years: i.e. 10-6 first year with the Cowboys with Quincy Carter as the QB.

Cardinals (-2.5) OVER 49ERS: Both teams suck equally.

CHARGERS (-9.5) OVER Panthers: Nice game here. I think Carolina is a little frisky. I think this is too many points. This could be the last game of Sean "lights out" Merriman's career, barring he doesn't tear every ligament in his knee in one play. Where's LT in his preparation? Same with Phillip Rivers? Without Steve Smith, I think the Chargers do enough to win and cover here.

Dallas (-5.5) OVER BROWNS: Unfortunately, I don't love the Browns here. I think they're gonna have a tough time covering and stopping the Cowboys. I hope they show up huge and blow them out, but they have just been rattled by these injuries. I mean, our best player Josh Cribbs is nursing a high ankle sprain, which is a nagging injury. Braylon is a question mark with his little injury. K2 is always a health question mark. DA has just been getting crushed by all these analysts who are hedging their bets on the Browns like crazy after months and months of positive hype. I am pulling for DA to play a nice season and play well in big games. We got blown out the first game of last year and were able to have a great season. I hope we can get outta this week with a lot of improvement and injury free and look forward to our next daunting opponent on a brutal schedule. This isnt gonna be a fun season for the Cowboys. Sure, they'll probably go 13-3 14-2, but it will all be predicated on if they can get off the snide in the playoffs. The Pac Man story line is great stuff too. I'll set the over under at 9 weeks before Pac hits a "scrip club." 7 weeks if he is "being rebellion."

COLTS (-9.5) OVER Bears: The "Indy tax" is in full effect here, but I still like them. I think Peyton will have more than enough to beat the fighting Devin Hesters. Kyle Orton sucks. We'll see sexy Rexy before their buy week. Peyton is the only question mark here this week. I think Tony Gonzalez is legit and will have a nice year next to Reggie weezy Wayne. If Harrison is healthy that will be a scary bonus. Now that I am thinking about it Jeff Saturday being out for the first 6 games is a huge blow for the Colts. They should have enough this week though at home.

Broncos (-3) OVER Raiders: I like Jay Cutler to have a nice season. Same goes for RUN DMC.

Vikings (+3) OVER PACKERS: I'm gonna buy into the Vikes hype machine in week 1.

As I stated in the preface, this is not as solid or confident as I wanted the week 1 picks to be. But it is what is. I think last year I went 13-2-1 in the first week of picks. Things seem to go according to plan in week 1 but who knows. As I sit here finishing this up, I am feeling for of a 9-5-2 type week 1 in terms of picks. Nice time of the year to be a sports fan and a TV fan. Lotta football coming up from here till February.

jcIII