Thursday, January 27, 2011

A Quick Word on Jimmer

In a marquee college game that wasn't on TV anywhere in the midwest, Jimmer Fredette lit the gym on fire, as BYU handed San Diego State its first loss. With Danny Ainge, Daryl Morey and over 20 NBA scouts in attendance, he dropped 43 on 14-24 shooting, with 5 treys. In the extended highlights that I saw, it was an unbelievable atmosphere and an even more unbelievable individual effort by Jimmer. For a lot of players, it's really hard to play at home when the stakes are high and there are eyeballs on you. Well, Jimmer didn't seem to notice. He was comfortable right from the tip. He put the team on his back and just dominated a pretty good defensive team in San Diego State.

With Jimmer fever spreading, conversations move to whether or not Jimmer can score and excel in the NBA. Bottom line: there's a long way to go until the guys in charge have to figure that out. The good news: in the meantime, I think we are going to get to see more of him. I think that ESPN and other networks will look to pick up a few BYU games down this home stretch in the season. That's good for all of us because none of us have seen enough of him to have a good feel on his game night to night. I can't wait to see if they can ride this confidence wave and make an impact in the NCAA tournament.

But since you come to my blog for a take, I'll offer a few bullet points.

I think he's a first round pick. I like him in that 18-25 range. It's potentially a deep draft but lot depends on who decides to come out and who decides to stay. With a lockout looming, who knows what the thought process will be.

When I watch him and then try to visualize him in an NBA game, I can see him really doing some damage making plays off a high ball screen. He can really shoot it off the dribble. And he doesn't need a ton of room. He can make contested 3s. Million dollar question is whether he will have the patience and savvy to really make the pick and roll his weapon. Is he going to be able to make the creative decisions necessary to be dangerous turning the corner? Because at BYU he hasn't really done that. They just kind of give him space and time to break his defender down. They also take him off the ball and bring him off screens to catch and shoot. But to simplify, I think he has a lot of Mark Price and JJ Barea in him.

On a negative note, in the highlights last night he was breaking his guys down with long, wide, high crossovers. That's an "absolutely not" for me. And although his deadly crosses bring the Mormons in Provo to their feet, those aren't an option in the NBA. Can you imagine him trying to break down Tyreke Evans with that garbage? Or any wing player with a long wing span (which is everyone)?

Jimmer has shown that he can be very creative when he gets into the lane. He has shown a variety of finishes, ranging from creative to really awesome. All below the rim. Unfortunately, the NBA is where really creative below the rim finishes go to die. He is going to have to simplify his takes to the rim and really use his body. And learn to sit down in that intermediate key area and lace short jumpers. His strength and his ability to change direction with strength and stop and pullup is one of his great attributes.

Defensively, there is a laundry list of issues. There's not enough time. Put it this way: is there any guard in the league you can name off the top of your head that he can guard? He has rebounding issues as well. Those two points alone are enough to take a pass on him, despite his awesome ability to get buckets.

Jimmer is a show. He's a great talent. I want to see more of him. A lot more. Time will tell whether he has a place in the NBA. But for now, let's hope BYU embraces the moment and makes a deep run in the NCAA tourney.

Happy Thursday.

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